Data shows most NCHSAA athletes, schools remain in sports suspension
By Nick Stevens, HighSchoolOT managing editor
Updated July 11, 2020 2:03 p.m. EDT
https://www.highschoolot.com/data-shows-most-nchsaa-athletes-schools-remain-in-sports-suspension/19183760/We know a day of reckoning is likely coming. Soon, possibly as soon as next week, we will have a better idea of what the fall sports season may look like in the era of the coronavirus pandemic.
The future of high school sports will become somewhat clearer when Governor Roy Cooper announces his plans for the school year. At that time, the N.C. High School Athletic Association will begin working on its plan for the fall. Any changes will have to be voted on by the NCHSAA Board of Directors.
Some athletes are already working out with their coaches though.
The NCHSAA allowed school districts to resume high school sports workouts under strict safety protocols on June 15, but most school districts waited. By HighSchoolOT's count on Saturday morning, 64 of the state's 117 traditional school districts have allowed limited summer workouts to resume. 44 districts remain suspended, and we're awaiting information from nine districts.
So before you read on, let me be clear — we are missing data from nine school districts: Caswell County Schools, Cherokee Central Schools, Halifax County Schools, Hyde County Schools, Northampton County schools, Roanoke Rapids City Schools, Tyrrell County Schools, Warren County Schools, and Weldon City Schools. If you have any of this missing information, email me at nstevens@wral.com or send me a DM on Twitter @NickStevensHSOT.
Metro vs. Rural
The numbers above may suggest that the majority of North Carolina is back to sports, but the district numbers alone are a bit misleading. Most of the districts that have resumed athletic activities are in more rural areas of North Carolina. In fact, based on the average daily membership numbers from last school year, only one of the ten largest school districts has allowed sports workouts to happen this summer. The two largest school districts — Wake County Schools and Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools, which make up about 22% of the NCHSAA's student population — have suspended summer activities until further notice.
Union County Schools, the sixth largest school district, is the largest school district to resume high school sports. The ten Union County high schools went back on the field on July 6.
Guilford County Schools, Winston-Salem Forsyth County Schools, Cumberland County Schools, Johnston County Schools, Durham County Schools, Cabarrus County Schools, and Gaston County Schools — the other districts making up the ten largest in the state — are all suspended until at least July 20.
The nine largest school districts that remain in a sports suspension make up 44% of the NCHSAA's student population (187,964 of 424,873) and 30% of the schools from traditional LEAs (not including parochial or charter schools).
If we expand that view to the 25 largest school districts, 14 are still in sports suspensions while 11 have resumed limited activities. Of those 11, only four started activities on the first day the NCHSAA allowed it — Buncombe County Schools (12th largest), Pitt County Schools (15th largest), Iredell-Statesville Schools (16th largest), and Randolph County Schools (22nd largest).
On the other side, the smallest school districts in North Carolina, many more have resumed athletics.
Based on data we have collected, only three of the smallest 25 districts remain in a sports suspension — Perqiumans (104th largest), Camp Lejeune (112th largest), and Jones County Schools (114th largest). It is worth noting, however, that we are missing data from seven of the smallest 25 districts, so others could be suspended and we do not know about it.
For comparison, the 25 smallest school districts make up less than 3% of the student population in the NCHSAA and include just 7% of the member schools from traditional LEAs. All but two of the smallest 25 school districts have just one high school in them.
Most athletes & schools have not returned to activity
Tracking the number of school districts that have returned to summer workouts is important, but it only paints part of the picture.
According to HighSchoolOT estimates, which are based on last year's ADM data, schools that have returned to sports activities make up approximately 147,146 students. On the flip side, schools that remain in a suspension make up approximately 272,797 students. That means approximately 64% of NCHSAA athletes from traditional LEAs are still unable to resume sports activities, while 35% have gone back to limited workouts.
We're missing data for about 4,930 students, which makes up 1% of the total student population.
Perhaps it's most important to look at this on a school level, though. After all, you need enough schools participating at different classifications to have a season, right?
Based on our count, 160 schools (41%) from traditional LEAs are back to summer workouts, while 198 schools (53%) remain suspended.
Things become clearer as you break it down by classification:
4A: 11 of the 79 schools from traditional LEAs have resumed workouts. 68 of the schools remain suspended.
3A: 38 of the 104 schools from traditional LEAs have resumed workouts. 66 of the schools remain suspended.
2A: 70 of the 114 schools from traditional LEAs have resumed workouts. 42 of the schools remain suspended. We're missing data from two schools.
1A: 37 of the 69 schools from traditional LEAs have resumed workouts. 23 of the schools remain suspended. We're missing data from nine schools.
While slim majorities have resumed workouts in the 1A and 2A classification, the vast majority of schools in the 3A and 4A classifications remain in a sports suspension.
The raw numbers
Note: This data only includes traditional LEAs and does not take into account charter school or parochial school data at this time.
By District
Resumed: 64 districts (55%)
Suspended: 44 districts (38%)
No update: 9 districts (7%)
By School
Resumed: 160 schools (41%)
Suspended: 198 schools (53%)
No update: 11 schools (6%)
By Average Daily Membership
Resumed: 147,146 students (35%)
Suspended: 272,797 students (64%)
No update: 4,930 students (1%)
What does this mean?
I am not going to pretend to know where we are headed next with high school sports. There are many, many options on the table. It's still possible that the season will begin on time on Aug. 1 (though that is the optimistic point of view at this point). It's possible we see a postponement of the fall season — maybe a few days, maybe a few weeks, maybe a month or more. It's also possible the fall season gets postponed to the spring or canceled all together.
Right now, we just don't know. No one does. NCHSAA Commissioner Que Tucker said this week that the association will begin making those decisions after Governor Roy Cooper announces his return to school plan this week, so we could have answers sooner rather than later.
We can make some inferences based on the data above though.
First, the bigger school districts are mostly following the same script, and as long as they are in a suspension, it's hard to see how the fall sports seasons will go on as scheduled. You saw above the largest nine districts that remain in a suspension make up 44% of the student population and 30% of the schools in the NCHSAA. They have schools in all four classifications too.
Even at the smaller classifications, based on the data we have collected, just about half — or a little more than half — of the 1A and 2A schools have resumed sports activities.
I don't know this to be fact, but I find it unlikely the NCHSAA would move forward with the fall sports season as long as suspension numbers remain anywhere close to the level they're at now.
There were some good numbers that came out this week though. Tucker said on Wednesday that the NCHSAA is aware of just four positive COVID-19 cases at schools where workouts have resumed, and based on contact tracing, they do not believe any of the cases were contracted at workouts.
That being said, based on tthe data available today, we likely have a ways to go before high school sports can fully resume in North Carolina.