A normal year - Hough would easily repeat. They have many guys that would be in the top 4, most guys top 6. Now with the brackets like they are and single elimination, you have top guys going at it from the quarters, which will put one out to no longer earn points again. So you have to look at how many guys will a team have in the finals and is that enough to counter Laney having so many kids qualify and potentially scoring points early. My guess is that Laney will fizzle fast but go ahead with a big lead, then it is a catch-up game for everyone else. In some cases, it was better to get 3rd than 1st or 2nd coming out of a region, that is never the case except for this year.
High Probability of Champs
Hough - 3
Laney- 2
Pinecrest - 2
LKN - 2
So it is open for the taking. I believe there will be 1-2 upsets that will win or lose the tournament for a team. That's it 1-2 critical matches in the quarters or Semi's.
Totally agree, 145 match ups and 160 match ups are key for a lot of teams and 170 has the number 1and 2 ranked kids according to NCMAT going at it first round.